The Backup Plan Is Part of the Plan
Scott Schnaars
Most demand gen plans fall apart in the back half of any given quarter, and the reason is almost always the same: something isn't tracking. A channel that was supposed to hit a number isn't hitting it. A customer segment that was supposed to convert isn't converting. And there's no plan B, so the whole quarter becomes an emergency scramble to make up pipeline from whatever will move fastest.
What's usually missing is scenario thinking at the beginning, not the end. You build a plan where channel A produces 60 percent of your pipeline. Channel B produces 35 percent. Channel C is a test. You commit. Halfway through, channel A is underperforming. Now you're panicking because there's no capacity anywhere else, and you can't physically shift that much volume to channels B and C in the time you have left.
How to model two or three pipeline scenarios at the start of the quarter looks like this: you have your base case, where each channel hits its committed number. You also have a scenario where your biggest channel underperforms by 20 percent. You work backward. If that happens, where does the gap come from? Can channel B scale? Can you accelerate a test channel? You answer those questions in week one, not week nine.
The third scenario you model is the one where something outperforms. A channel you thought would be 20 percent of pipeline becomes 35 percent. How do you lean into that? Do you have the team capacity? Do you have the account set? Do you have the creative? If not, what do you build now so you're ready if it happens?
The channel diversification conversation to have with your team before you need it is honest and calm. You say: "Channel A is our biggest revenue driver, which is good. It's also our biggest risk. If it underperforms, what does that mean for us?" Your team answers. Then you ask: "What would it take to build channel B to where it could cover that gap if it happened?" You don't start building channel B. But you know what building it would require. When the moment comes to move fast, you're not starting from scratch.
What a real backup plan looks like is not "run more ads." It's specific: "If LinkedIn isn't tracking to number by week four, we increase spend on ABM email by X and shift the video budget from brand to direct response." It's channel names and dollar amounts. It's measurable. It's executable. The difference between a backup plan and a fantasy is that you've already thought through the execution. You know who runs it. You know what the success metrics are. You've pre-loaded the decision so that when the moment comes, you're executing a plan, not inventing one.
How to present contingency thinking to leadership without sounding like you expect to fail: frame it as scenario planning, not disaster planning. "We're building the quarter plan with scenarios. Here's our base case. Here's what we'll do if A underperforms. Here's what we'll do if B outperforms." This is how finance models things. Leadership respects it. It looks like you've actually thought the quarter through, which you have.
The best demand gen leaders spend as much time planning what happens if the plan doesn't work as they do planning the plan itself. When the back half hits and something shifts, they move while everyone else is still deciding what to do.
Scott.
